Pandemic = Kryptonite for comics?

TwiceOnThursdays wrote: I know I'm going to be a wet blanket here, because everyone is saying the same thing.  But has anyone here actually looked at the numbers instead of just spouting off "common wisdom"?

Feel free to question anything in here, but I'm posting #'s and links and encourage you to actually question them. But I equally encourage you to question the story in your head.

Someone said comics have been dying for the last 10 years, so let's actually look at the sales #'s.

But first a history reality check.  Anyone know why Marvel made a shitty deal for FF, Spider-man, Hulk, and X-Men movie rights?  Oh, yeah.  It was almost bankrupt in the late 90's.  Marvel is not almost bankrupt now.

?!?  I thought comics were DYING. Yet a major publisher went from Bankrupt to ok.  The modern movie money goes to Disney not Marvel Comics.  The old movie money went to fund the next movies.  So no, the movies did not save Marvel Comics. In fact it was a great risk for them.

So they went from Bankrupt to.. not bankrupt. Comics were WORSE OFF IN THE LATE 90's. (Also a lot of the comics were shit.)  DC was having so many problems in the early 80's the considered licensing all the characters to Marvel. (It's what got Byrne dreaming of writing superman and when that deal was yanked away, and upset at how marvel treated him... that led him to DC to reboot Superman.)  The publishers have been in MUCH more dire straights in the past.  Thinking this is new is ignoring history.

I don't think I need to support the Marvel Assertion. EVERYONE should know why Marvel made their deals.  Here's a page that talks about DC:  geektyrant.com/news/2011/8/29/how-marvel...superman-batman.html

Let's look at the actual #'s now:

www.comichron.com/yearlycomicssales.html

2011 to 2018 the comics market grew $300M.  If I inflation adjust the 2011 #'s, it's 37% growth from 2011 to 2018.  While not awesome, its hardly dying.(2019 #'s are not in yet.)

"Comics Cost More"

In 2009 comics were 2.99 and 3.99.  Today they are 3.99.   2.99 in 2009 dollars in 2020 dollars is 3.55.  So yes, comics are more expensive, at $3.99 for all comics, but there were still 3.99 comics in 2009, meaning those comics were MORE expensive.  Most of these were not "special edition prestige formats" they were just more expensive.

www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=2.99

Let's prove that 2.99/3.99 number, and also look at Jan 2020.

www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2009/2009-01.html
www.comichron.com/monthlycomicssales/2020/2020-01.html

Comics are 3.99 now ( a 12% increase after inflation adjustment) and a few are 4.99 and there is a $9.99 special edition WW 750. But these are prestige format books compared to the more normal books at 3.99 in 2009.  (One $3.99 book, Final Crisis was a prestige format with a better cover and paper. The others were not.)

So it's true comics cost about 12% more than in 2009, so it's not great, but people are talking like it's 33%+ more.  Just ain't true.And SOME WERE MORE EXPENSIVE. (3.99 2009 USD > $3.99 2020 USD).

And other than the super sales of Amazing Spider-Man #1, the sales #'s look comparable.  It's not 200K to 40k like a lot of people seem to think.

In Jan 2009 the #30 comic sold 46k, in Jan 2020 it sold 44k.
#10 to #10: 70k to 56k. So you do see a drop off in the top 10, but there is a long tail.  There were 300 comics on the list in 2009, and 500 in  2020.  So there are more comics fighting for the dollars, and the top 10 suffer for it, but sales are up.   (And yes this puts stress on local stores.)

I'll also make an aside.  Ethan Van Scriver got a super mega hit and made $1.2 Million on Kickstarter.  This is indeed awesome.  And it means he (personally) is making a crapton of money (or should be).  It's far less than a $1.2M as he has to pay kickstarter, print books, and mail them, but it's still a lot of money. Because this has always been true when you work independently: greater risk, but you keep all the reward. This is old news, Dave Sim went over all this decades ago.

The big trick in the modern day is that you can use Kickstarter to collect money up front, and you don't have to assume financial risk.  That's freaking awesome. I don't think this makes anyone doing it a genius though, it's just a different world ... AND the people doing it literally CAN'T get their comics into stores, so they're doing the only thing they can do (self publish in small #'s and get the comic onto Comixology).  SOME even build on that and get the comic into stores, but... it's also a TINY market.  And I mean that. TINY.

To put this into perspective, a comic that comicsgaters like to make fun of, Ms. Marvel, pulls in about $1.6M/year.  That's a rough #, but I looked the monthly sales were roughly the same so Took (comics sales x cost + GN sales x Cost) x 12. I could have just done all the math and figured it all out, but I was just looking or a ballpark #.

This number DOES NOT include digital sales,  foreign sales,  GN sales to the book market (including Amazon) or the sales to Scholastic (sales done to schools, this market isn't small, and it's why Raina Telemeier outsells anyone else).  So I want to stress this is a LOW END #.

And lastly, it absolutely does not include merchandise sales.  In Short, that's a LOT of Ms. Marvel money sitting on the table that isn't in that #.

Whereas I'm pretty sure the kickstarter is most of Ethan's sales.  He doesn't have an online store (anymore? he used to?) Looks like he sells on ebay now.  No way to judge what that is, and i'm not gonna scrape twitter or You Tube to find out. If someone knows ... please point us at it.

Now, that $$ for Ms. marvel is split to Marvel, Diamond, comic book stores, and a small pitiance goes to the creators.  ("Sharecroppers" as Dave Sim calls them.)   Ethan subtracts his overhead costs and takes home the rest, so he's doing far better than he ever was working for DC/Marvel. (Again, old news, It's also why almost all creators end up doing their own books at some point.)

But let's not fool ourselves into think that market is even a fraction of the size of the normal comics market, in $$ or sales #. Comicsgates darlings make like 10 comics/year vs 100's/Month.  It's not knocking them, far from it. They are personally doing VERY WELL.   But their annual sales $ figures are merely average.  People seem to be making an argument that $$ == popularity ... uh... not a winning argument. Ms. Marvel generates more than Ethan does, and it's just an average title.  She sells more copies a month than is kickstarters.

If Ethan could make 12 issues a year instead of 2 (generous), then we might be able to find out if the market was actually there to sustain that or not.  But he's not, so it means he likely can not create that much.    Which is fine, it's HARD to do it all by yourself.  Though other people have done it and still do it.  Terry Moore manages to put out monthly comics and has for a very very long time.  (Ethan makes more than Moore does, though I don't know how many direct sales versions Moore sells, he's got a nice store.)

My point being is that the comicsgate market is TINY.  It's a few million to $1 Billion.

It is however perfectly suited to weather the current crisis fairly well.  No overhead, comics are pre-paid for before printing, and no worries about a third party shutting down.  That's not a small thing.

OTH, it would mean I'd get like 20 comics a year from the kickstarter market, and .. shit I get more than that a week.  Like I said: TINY.

So I am not downplaying what Ethan is doing... but it's a poor substitute for the comics market.  But if you don't like Modern comics, I guess that's no loss.  But some of them (even from DC and Marvel) are pretty damn awesome.

As for some of the other things I've heard in the thread that I think are also logically suspect?

Now, what do you think Ethan says to "a comics fan" who tells him that he needs to write his comics in a different way?  Does he say "oh, man, mr. customer you are totally right. I'll change and do what you want?"

Or, does he think "If you don't like what I'm doing, do not buy my book then."

If anyone thinks it's #1  .... well .... I think you might have a reality problem.

The only difference is that Kelly Sue is HONEST and says that shit out loud.  I'm really surprised that one single creative person reads what she says and thinks it's some horrible thing.   I mean I get fans getting upset who have no clue, but that's how the world works.  And honestly, a fan SHOULD know that too.  But frankly, if you're upset by what she says, there IS a word for you.  S-N-O-W-F-L-A-K-E.   And yes, not buying her book is EXACTLY what she wants. She making her books to sell to the people she thinks likes it, changing them targets a market that she doesn't want to be.

Ethan wants you to not buy his book too rather than change it into something he doesn't want it to be.  Now, he'd like to NOT turn you off and get you to spend money AND not change his book, but if it's "Get Fan's Money OR change book"... he's not going to pick #1 as he's writing the book for the 10k fans who want what he's making.

But seriously ANY creator will say this.  If they don't, they're lying to themselves.  The only difference is they might be nicer in how they phrase it ...but she's merely stating a basic truth.  So she's an asshole. So's Ethan.

(Similarly, I think the "Customer Service" analogy is ... simplistic and stupid.  And honestly I can tear into that one too, but this is already too long.)

If you think Ethan's politics don't make it into his books ... well I've not read Cyberfrog, but I'd be really surprised if that was true. Because art is either brainless fun (no harm in that) or it says something. If it says something...it's going to have the creators veiwpoint in it.  And if you don't like it, don't buy it.

That's ALWAYS been true.  And comics, esp Marvel comics, have ALWAYS had politics in them.

And let me take a moment to directly address something kikass and Idylls said, which is also "common knowledge", as I have heard repeated before... that is that Captain Marvel was reset due to poor sales.  I'm sorry, I just do not agree.  And you both stated this thing that IS NOT TRUE, so I am wondering where it comes from.  I guess lots of people believe things that are not true so... meh.

I'm reorganizing my comics so I deal with this A LOT.  And that's how I know that the statement is poppycock.  Marvel restarts series ALL THE TIME.  It's a disease with them.

Amazing Spider-Man: 3 volumes since 2006

Captain Marvel: 4 (shorter timeframe, yes), so 5 if you wanted to add the old Ms. Marvel title in and the swap to Captain Marvel on the name change.   (I am ignoring captain marvel and the carol corps as it was an event book.)  But ... there wasn't always an Amazing Spider-man either.

X-Men:  5  It's hard to track as they kept changing the main title from X-Men, to Uncanny X-Men,  And at one point both X-Men and Uncanny X-Men were overlapping.  But I think it's fair to count this as one and say "5-6".  (It's 3 each, with a period that there were two out at the same time, so "5" is fair.)

Iron Man: 2, Invincible Iron Man: 3 (total 5, they weren't concurrent).
Avengers (main title): 4

My point is that 4 is maybe a bit high.. .but it's not out of line with other books-- particularly the [Uncanny] X-Men and Avengers which didn't have any sales problems.  If you are claiming X happens due to Y, and X happens to something that doesn't have Y....well, I'm going to posit that your theory is incorrect.

Captain Marvel sales _might_ have been bad, I'm not even checking.  Because I don't have to.  I proved that 4 volumes/number changes for a Marvel book in the given time frame happens even with good sales.... so the premise is flawed.

If you don't have way too many comics, I get not knowing this ... but it just doesn't jive with reality.

Now, not liking modern comics.  Hell, that's a personal thing. I just happen to find a LOT of comics I enjoy.  SO I don't know what people's problems are, nor does it matter. (Like what you like, complain about what you want to complain about.)

And I'm not as old as some here, but I'm older than others.  I remember how shitty 90's comics were from Marvel.  Today's comics are LOADS better.

Oh and the publishing industry is having problems (mass market books were canceled).  The magazine industry is having problems.  newspapers are having problems.  All due to Covid-19.  All have STRONG markets still open.  Comics don't. So I think blaming SJW's for the current COVID-19 problems is sloppy thinking.

Hell AMC filed for bankruptcy!

Now DC and Marvel not accepting returns and that killing the comic book direct market?  Yes, right on the money. 

but, that's a BUSINESS decision and has ZERO to do with the SJW rants.  There have ALWAYS been bad books.  Focusing on one source of them, and then blaming issues caused by business decisions ... it's the tail wagging the dog.   And yes, the current industry RELIES upon the stores and TREATS THEM LIKE DIRT.  But that's all true with/without SJW rants.

So recap: Comic sales are up 37% since 2011 and the largest problem facing stores is a business decision by DC and Marvel that screws them blind... but if I don't believe that SJW are killing comics I'm deluded?   Sorry, I'm going with facts and not emotional responses because I'm uhinged by some comics (two of the comics kickass2014 ranted about HAVE NOT BEEN RELEASED... so "unhinged" when you rant about future comics that BY DEFINITION can't be the cause of a past problem as they are not out yet.  A symptom of something current maybe ... but... _not out yet_ == 'not part of the current problem'.

Also Idylss mentioned, "female Thor"... which was a fantastic comic(s). AND, she's now the new Valkyrie and it's pretty great too.   Really great story esp when coupled with the fall of "Odinson" and his path to redemption. Not quite "Demon In the bottle" but ... pretty great overall.  If you have Marvel Unlimited I recommend reading them.

Also, some creators who make (charitably) 20 comics a year are the future and I should be happy with that.  Whatever.   And honestly, I love supporting Kickstarter comics! But.. I need more than that!! But props to anyone who makes a comic!

Now, the industry MIGHT collapse, but ... this article doesn't actually say that.   And, sadly if it does it'll be due to the stores as small businesses failing for being shuttered for months NOT SJW comics.  Comic Book stores are NOT the only small business failing. Thinking otherwise is well... deluded.

Feel free to actually find information and not anedotes to change my mind.    Also, maybe a bit less ranting.  There was a lot of gish gallop .... and I get that some HATE SJW comics and therefore blame them for EVERYTHING.  It's just a bit...unreasonable.

BTw, not all current writers are hacks and not all current comics are shit.  For instance, Immortal Hulk is just now starting to drag, but it started out ON FIRE.  The new spider-woman was pretty good (I didn't like the new costume).  Frankly,Jimmy Olson is pretty silly fun.  (etc).  Those are all recent and I didn't think very hard.




























 

kikass2014 wrote: Just one quick thing I remembered.

You know those "sales" numbers, are comics "shipped" by Diamond?

And because DC and Marvel do NOT accept returns on any of their titles, they count as "sold".

So yeah, might want to rethink those numbers.  Just because a title SHIPS X, doesn't mean it SELLS X.   Just ask all the comic stores who have tons of unsold comics they can't sell.

IF Marvel and DC had any faith in their books, they would say to comic store owners they can return any unsold copies.

Wonder what the "numbers" you dug up will look like then?

Peace.

/K

kikass2014 wrote: Of a man who is a PROFESIONAL and thus represents his employer, telling people to go FUCK OFF cause they voted differently to him.  Nevermind that 50%!!! of the country voted for him as well.  So what are you saying Dan?  50% of your potential CUSTOMERS can fuck off??  Ok.

SJW politics has been injected EVERYWHERE over the last few years. Not denying that.  Thats why this is just an acceleration of something that was bound to happen.

FANS and thus CUSTOMERS have....had......enough.

But hey, if you like being though of as shit by these "professionals" in the industry, carry on bending over and taking it.  A LOT of people have had enough.,