Ratings getting really low?

andyf wrote: I hear Supergirl has declined an awful lot in the ratings. A ratings drop was expected with the move to the CW, but have they dropped more than the CW expected?

Barring disasters, the show should be good for four seasons at least.

The positives...

FIrst: people here who have a more insider view of the industry may be able to offer more detail on this, but I believe that 85+ episodes is a good count for syndication (one article I read claimed 88 episodes is the magic number, which is why seasons tend to be 22 episodes long, but I've no idea why 88 is special!) Four seasons would get Supergirl into that magic target.

Second: you have to understand that the funding model for CW is different to CBS, at least when it comes to Supergirl. CW is part owned by WB, which means it (or rather one of its parent companies) makes money from selling shows like The Flash and Supergirl from overseas markets, domestic syndication, and streaming box sets. This means that CW can take a longer term view of profits, offsetting loses during the first broadcast run against future WB profits when the shows are repackaged and resold. Indeed some sources suggest that The CW largely treats the first broadcast of shows like Supergirl as just an advert, helping to build an audience and a buzz around a show, making it more attractive (and thus more lucrative for WB) when sold to future syndication deals, overseas sales, and box-set sites like Netflix.

The possible negatives...

First:, The CW has a lot of superhero shows on at this moment, indeed four out of five of its weekday prime time slots are occupied by DC hero shows. The two most established shows, Arrow and The Flash, have seen declining ratings (although still good), while their more recent shows have been a mixed blessing. Legends of Tomorrow has struggled and received a truncated second season order; Supergirl has had solid ratings thus far, but not spectacular. There is a chance that The CW may decide that their schedule us over-saturated with superheroes, and may reduce the count so that the remaining shows will have a better focus. I've seen some fans suggest that Arrow and Legends of Tomorrow are the most likely shows to go in that circumstance: Arrow because it is surely getting close to retirement, and LoT because of its lacklustre ratings. That would, hopefully, leave just The Flash and Supergirl as CW's superhero shows.

Second: It seems that everyone really loves the new Superman in the opening episodes of season two, and there's been repeated pressure from fans to do a spin off show. There's been some hints that maybe -- just maybe! -- WB is taking these requests seriously, and if CW's superhero shows are slowly in decline then what better way to give them a shot in the arm than bringing the most famous superhero of them all into their schedules? The problem here is that Berlanti's Supergirl draws its inspiration heavily from Superman comics and movie. So what happens if the real Superman gets green lit to appear on the network, given that they already have a show that is heavily inspired by Superman..? Will they exchange Supergirl for Superman? (And package the shows together in syndication, presumably!)

Bottom line: unless the ratings really drop, Supergirl is probably good for at least four seasons. But a Superman spin-off, if it happens, could seriously impact on the Supergirl show.

R5